Market Commentary April 2018

 The Toronto Real Estate Board released its sales data for March, and with 7,228 sales, there were 40% fewer homes sold in the GTA this March than last. However, since we’re looking at two wildly different markets, the year-over-year comparisons are not telling the story of the current market in the GTA.  A year ago, we were at the peak of a long running housing boom, characterized by low inventory, rapidly rising prices, lower interest rates, and little government intervention. Today, the number of active listings has more than doubled from a year ago to 15,971, housing supply has grown from less than a month’s worth to between two and three months of inventory, the cost of borrowing is on the rise, and the average sales price for low-rise housing is down year-over-year (condominium apartments continue to gain value).  For at least another quarter, month-to-month statistics offer a better indicator of where the market is heading… and there’s good news for Sellers. With an average sales price of $784,558, March represents the fourth consecutive month of rising prices and the highest average sales price since June 2017. At $1,005,779 the average sales price of detached homes was at its highest since October, while at $1,293,903, detached homes in the 416 were at their highest average price since September. And, with an average of 20 days on the market, homes sold in the GTA over a shorter time frame than in any month since June.  Once May stats are available and we can begin to compare year-over-year data in the Fair Housing Plan era, the annual changes will have more meaning. Until then, it’s apples and oranges.

The Toronto Real Estate Board released its sales data for March, and with 7,228 sales, there were 40% fewer homes sold in the GTA this March than last. However, since we’re looking at two wildly different markets, the year-over-year comparisons are not telling the story of the current market in the GTA.

A year ago, we were at the peak of a long running housing boom, characterized by low inventory, rapidly rising prices, lower interest rates, and little government intervention. Today, the number of active listings has more than doubled from a year ago to 15,971, housing supply has grown from less than a month’s worth to between two and three months of inventory, the cost of borrowing is on the rise, and the average sales price for low-rise housing is down year-over-year (condominium apartments continue to gain value).

For at least another quarter, month-to-month statistics offer a better indicator of where the market is heading… and there’s good news for Sellers. With an average sales price of $784,558, March represents the fourth consecutive month of rising prices and the highest average sales price since June 2017. At $1,005,779 the average sales price of detached homes was at its highest since October, while at $1,293,903, detached homes in the 416 were at their highest average price since September. And, with an average of 20 days on the market, homes sold in the GTA over a shorter time frame than in any month since June.

Once May stats are available and we can begin to compare year-over-year data in the Fair Housing Plan era, the annual changes will have more meaning. Until then, it’s apples and oranges.

HK Newsletter Apr. 2018 Bottom.JPG